In the last two articles I explained what the grid looks like, what makes it work, and what makes it fail. In this article, I will talk about the electricity sector in India.
Figure 6.1: Total installed capacity of the top ten countries
As seen in Figure 6.1, as of 31st October, 2014, India had an installed capacity of 2,54,649 MW or (254.649 GW since 1 GW = 1,000 MW). India became the world’s 4th largest producer of electricity in the year 2013 surpassing Russia. Only USA, China, and Japan have more installed capacity than India; USA’s and China’s generation is more than 4 times that of India’s!
For the benefit of those who don’t understand how many numbers of various appliances 1 MW can power, take a look at the following table:
No. |
Appliance |
Wattage
|
Number |
| 1. | Small CFL lamp | 10 | 1,00,000 |
| 2. | T5 tube light | 28 | 35,714 |
| 3. | 36” ceiling fan | 55 | 18,181 |
| 4. | 42” ceiling fan | 65 | 15,384 |
| 5. | 48” ceiling fan | 75 | 13,333 |
| 6. | Evaporative cooler | 400 | 2,500 |
| 7. | Window AC (medium) | 900 | 1,111 |
| 8. | Window AC (large) | 1,500 | 666 |
| 9. | Desktop with 17” CRT monitor | 300 | 3,333 |
| 10. | Laptop | 75 | 13,333 |
| 11. | 32” LCD TV | 150 | 6,666 |
| 12. | 42” LCD TV | 230 | 4,347 |
| 13. | 32” LED TV | 48 | 20,833 |
| 14. | 42” LED TV | 58 | 17,241 |
| 15. | Refrigerator | 150 | 6,666 |
| 16. | Microwave oven | 1,440 | 694 |
So if 1,00,000 CFL lamps of 10W each are switched on at the same time, they will consume 1 MW of power. Similarly, 13,333 48” ceiling fans, 666 large window AC units, 4,347 42” LCD TVs, and 694 microwave ovens will also consume 1 MW of power. And it goes without saying, that these are indicative numbers. The actual power consumption of microwave ovens for example can vary from one model to another, and the same applies to pretty much all appliances. But the above numbers should give you a good “ballpark estimate” as they say.
Figure 6.2: Total energy consumed in India from 1985 to 2012
Figure 6.2 shows the total energy consumed in India. Power is instantaneous energy, whereas energy is power summed up over a period of time. (Power and energy are analogous to speed and distance respectively.) When 1 kW or 1,000 watts of power is consumed for 1 hour, 1 kWh or 1 unit of energy is consumed. In India, the rate of 1 unit varies from Rs.2 to Rs.7 for residential consumers, Rs.5 to Rs.10 for industrial consumers, and Rs.8 to Rs.15 for commercial consumers. In Figure 2, the energy consumed is in TWh; 1 TWh is 1012 Wh or 109 units. As can be seen, the energy consumption of India in 2012 was 1,040 TWh or 1.04 trillion units, and the average historical growth rate since 1985 has been 6.5% year-on-year (YoY).
Figure 6.3: Expected growth in peak demand and installed capacity
Assuming that the future growth rate will be the same as the historical growth rates, the total energy requirement is expected to rise to 1,906 TWh by 2022, while the peak demand is expected to rise to 303 GW. To fulfil this energy/peak demand, installed capacity of almost 420 GW will be required, as can be seen in Figure 6.3. That’s a tough task to say the very least, because it would mean that almost 170 GW of installed capacity would have to be added in the next 8 years, which works out to an average of 21.25 GW per year! This is nearly impossible to do with conventional energy sources; getting all the permissions required is the hardest and the most time-consuming part, and it takes at least 5 years to build a coal/gas/nuclear powered power plant.
Figure 6.4: Per capita consumption of various developed and underdeveloped countries
As if that isn’t daunting enough, India’s future growth rate is expected to be higher than what it has been in the past for the following three reasons:
- India’s per capita consumption (PCC) is expected to increase as the country develops, progresses, and people start demanding more energy as their quality of life improves. This is a very “natural” phenomenon that has played out in all the developed countries and there’s no reason why it wouldn’t play out in India as well. India’s PCC is a meagre 884 units per year today, whereas the world average is 2,875, and the PCC of developed countries is much higher, as can be seen in the figure 6.4.
- The number of consumers is going to increase. There are 300 million people in India without access to electricity, believe it or not, spread across half a million hamlets. PM Modi has said that he wants to put a light bulb in every house before the next general elections. So many, if not all, of these people will get access to electricity, thus increasing the overall demand.
- India’s manufacturing sector is likely to grow faster than in the past. PM Modi’s Make in India vision/campaign is likely to be one of the causes of this. But in general, there is a huge demand for all kinds of products/services in India and it *will* spur the manufacturing sector at some point of time, irrespective of whether Make in India succeeds or not.
So if the demand is going to increase and if conventional energy sources won’t be able to meet the demand, then what is the solution? *That’s* the million dollar question. Should the youth of today simply *wait* till enough capacity gets built and let their golden years slip by? I think not. That is what PM Modi talked about in his election campaign, and that’s exactly why the people of India voted him in to power with a single-handed majority, something that hadn’t happened in last 30 years: to make India what it deserves to become!
I hope this article gave you a very good idea about the electricity sector in India. In the next article, I will talk about what is holding back this sector: power theft.
Sustainably yours,
Prashant Karhade.
Writer, Publisher, Entrepreneur
Hi prashant…
Good information .. We worked together on probity project..
APOLOGIES FOR THE DELAYED RESPONSE. ALL YOUR PREVIOUS ARTICLES INCLUDING THE LATEST ONE ARE VERY INFORMATIVE. YOUR EFFORTS IN POOLING THE DATA IS APPRECIATED. AS A COMPANY WE ARE DIVERSIFYING OUR ACTIVITIES TOWARDS THE EPC CONTRACTS IN THE MIDDLE EAST, PERTAINING TO NON CONVENTIONAL ENERGY SOURCES, SUCH AS SOLAR AND WIND. THE POTENTIAL OF SOLAR POWER PLANTS IS VERY HIGH IN UAE AND KSA. I WILL KEEP YOU POSTED ABOUT THE DEVELOPMENTS, MAY BE OF YOUR INTEREST AND PARTICIPATION.
Great job again Prashant! While you document the reasons why power consumption will increase, are there no significant reasons why it might decrease in some cases? Will highlighting them not spur a conservation race? Just a thought! Vasu.
Vasu,
It is my view that by default power consumption will keep increasing, certainly not in India considering that fact that it is likely to be in a “rapid growth” phase for the next 10-15 years. The only scenario in which it will come down is if appliances come along which are inherently more efficient than their current versions. And these appliances would have to pretty much sell themselves purely on the basis of the economics involved to become successful. Entrepreneurs can’t keep depending on subsidies because they never work. Of course, the government can incentivize the adoption of these products by waiving off taxes, but if the product is 200% of what it needs to be financially attractive, then what good does it do to waive off taxes right? So that brings me back to my earlier point which is that these products have to sell themselves purely based on the economic gains that the consumer will realize by adopting them. And such products *will * come along. I am 100% sure of that.
– Prashant.
Vasu,
One more thing. There was an article in the newspapers recently which stated that PM Modi has asked people to switch off the street lights on full moon night to help the cause of climate change. I strongly disagree with that statement. First of all, as Prime Minister of India, he has many other options at his disposal which will be a million times more effective in helping the cause of climate change.
And second of all, “switching off” anything is something that we cannot do. It is simply not an option. Why? Because the logical end of that option is to go back to the caves, Is that an option? I think not. Hence my point. What we *can* do on the other hand is to power our lives using renewable energy as described in the first article. If your building is generating all the energy that it needs using solar energy, why would you want to save energy?
Anyway, that’s my view. But I don’t think I am way off he mark because most people today do not think about the environment and what is going to happen a 100 years down the line. In the long term we are all dead, remember? 🙂 If they did, their behaviour would be a lot different. And that’s not a judgement call. It’s a plain statement of fact. If somebody has to go from point A to point B in his car, then he is going to burn petrol/diesel. What can he do? But give him bio-diesel at a competitive price, and he might use it.
A lot of “interesting options” will come up in the next couple of decades. I am sure of that.
– Prashant.
Dear sir,
If there is a breakdown in power transmission, the power cannot be stored during this time. Why there is no accountability by any person. Because power is unutilised during this period which is a colossal loss to the power generators in the country.